Financial Analysis of a Dairy Enterprise
 
Roger W. Palmer, Ph.D.
UW-Madison Dairy Science Department
 

The dairy industry is going through a major transition that will result in fewer, but larger dairies. Dairy managers are incorporating the latest technologies to improve profitability, efficiency and quality of life issues. These technologies include milking parlors, freestall housing, TMR feeding systems, etc. This modernization of existing facilities will continue to increased herd size, because 1) implementation of new technologies allows more cows to be managed with the same labor force; 2) more cows are needed to justify expensive equipment; and 3) specialization of the labor force becomes possible. Many dairy managers are re-deploying assets and specializing in a single enterprise to improve their operational efficiency. As the industry consolidates, its’ effect will be felt across most service areas, because less support people will be needed to support this smaller number of herds. Industry people on both the production and service sides will need increasing levels of technical competence.
 
Modernization and expansion of herd sizes is not new. In the United States large herd sizes became popular in the south and west first and now have spread across the country. Often the typical dairy herd size in different areas of the world is related to the geography, climate, crop producing capability and traditions of that area. California herds grew rapidly because open dry lots resulted in low housing costs. High quality forage was easily hauled to the farm which minimized the need for dairy managers to invest in land to produce crops. These two aspects resulted in low investment per cow and high productivity through specialization and excellent forage quality. In contrast, Wisconsin with its sever winter weather required dairy producers to invest capital in housing. Land resources and climatic conditions lead dairy managers to develop dairy operations with multiple enterprises (cows, heifers, crops, etc.). These things led to smaller herd sizes and high investment per animal. Although these two areas developed quiet differently, both experienced constant expansion paralleling the technologies that were available at the time. The average herd size in Wisconsin was 14.7 cow in 1945 and 53.7 in 1997. Today, the majority of Wisconsin dairy operations are in the 50-99 cow herd size range, but has several herds of over 1000 cows and is building many more of this size. As dairy farm managers contemplate increasing herd size, two options normally are considered. Both the step-by-step and all-new approaches are valid, with the decision of which to chose often based on the financial strength of the operation, the owner(s) goals and the future growth potential of the current operations’ site.
 
As the dairy manager evaluates options and strategies, council should be included from non-farm members. The manager needs to understand where the industry is going and attempt to develop an operation that has long-term profit potential. While making the decision of if, and how to modernize, the manager should remember that direction is more important than speed. Expanding too fast can increase risk.
 
Whenever a major expenditure is being considered, the manager needs to answer the following questions:

 If the dairy manager decides to make major improvements, a comprehensive business plan should be developed. This document provides an outline defining for the owner(s) and others what the status of the operation is, what the owner(s) want it to be and how they plan to achieve desired changes.
 
A key part of a dairy managers planning process is the definition and evaluation of different possible strategies. Selection the best strategy often is based on family goals and the relative profitability of different options evaluated. Meaningful financial analysis should start with historical information obtained from sound production and financial record keeping systems. Local, state and national benchmark database values should be used in conjunction with the dairy managers historical records to improve the accuracy of any projections made.
 
Separating income and expense items by enterprise and making inventory adjustments are needed to accurately evaluate the relative profitability of each portion of the business and to account for differences over time if cash accounting techniques are used. Every effort should be made to predict the expected financial performance of the proposed business change. Using accurate input and output values leads to accurate projections. Performing a sensitivity analysis for each projection allows the user to see the effect of changing key values and to evaluate the risk associated with each option.
 
Remember that the financial performance of the business will have a direct effect on the operator’s ability to achieve the personal goals of the owner(s) relating to income, retirement and inclusion of current and future family members into the operation. The most valuable advice one can give is for the manager to plan, plan and then plan some more. It’s much better to make mistakes on paper than in concrete.


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